Friday, October 16, 2026 — Open Rejection Reverse: A 150-Point Flush Undone in 30 Minutes, Then an 80-Point Box
NIFTY futures gapped up to 23,058.0 on Friday, 73 points above Thursday's close and well above the daily CPR. Then it sold. By the middle of the first half hour the market had flushed 150 points to 22,908.0, and by 10:15 it was back through the open and up at 23,154.6 — a 247-point swing in half an hour. The remaining five hours were a box, roughly 23,075 to 23,155, with VWAP underneath it the whole way. The close was 23,119.2, up 134.4 points (+0.58%), 35 points under the high.
That closes a week that opened at 22,657.0, made its low at 22,368.0 on Tuesday, and finishes at the high of its range.
Order Flow Analysis
The first bar sold, and the low was absorbed
Sellers owned the open. The 9:15 bar printed 4.59K volume with 59.62% of it on the sell side and a delta of -882. OI Sense read Long Unwinding at the open, the gap-up longs from the pre-market being handed back immediately. The 9:30 bar printed the 22,908.0 low and still closed positive (+301 on 53.83% buy volume): buyers were absorbing at the bottom, 15 points above the 22,893 value area low that anchored last night's support stack.
The reversal: two bars, +1.9K of delta
The 10:00 bar delivered +1.3K on 68.31% buy volume and carried price from the 22,930s back through the open. The 10:15 bar added +628 on its way to the 23,154.6 high. Cumulative delta swung from -882 to +1.4K in four bars. This is the structure the TPO guide calls an Open-Rejection-Reverse: opens, moves one way for a few brackets, then cleanly reverses back through the open. OI Sense switched to Short Covering after the opening bar and stayed there for the rest of the session.
Then an 80-point box
From about 10:30 to the close, the market traded between roughly 23,075 and 23,155. Volume collapsed to 500 to 700 per bar through the middle of the day, and cumulative delta crept from +0.8K to +1.99K, which is a day of positioning, not pressing. VWAP rose from about 23,030 at 10:00 to 23,079 at the close and price never traded under it. The pullbacks mostly stopped around 23,090 to 23,095, which is Thursday's Poor High: yesterday's undefended top was bought as a floor. Only the 14:45 sell bar went deeper, to about 23,075.
The two sell bars, and what answered them
The only real selling came at 12:45 (-220 on 70.99% sell volume) and at 14:45 (-619 on 66.74% sell volume, 1.85K), which pushed price to the bottom of the box. Buyers answered within the hour with +291 and +180 at 15:00 and 15:15, the latter on the afternoon's heaviest volume (2.52K). Cumulative delta closed at +1.6K, against +8.6K on Thursday.
15-minute footprint. A 59% sell opening bar, a low absorbed at 22,908, a +1.3K reversal bar at 10:00, then five hours inside an 80-point box above VWAP. OI Sense: Long Unwinding at the open, Short Covering for the rest of the session.
Key Order Flow Takeaway
- Open-Rejection-Reverse: the open was sold for 150 points, then taken back through in two bars (+1.3K and +628).
- The low was absorbed (+301 at the 22,908 print) just above the support stack.
- OI Sense: Long Unwinding at the open, Short Covering from then on.
- Five hours in a box (23,075 to 23,155) on thin volume, above a rising VWAP.
- Thursday's Poor High (23,095) was defended on most pullbacks; the deepest (14:45) reached about 23,075.
- Cumulative delta closed at +1.6K after a +1.99K high — a quiet day, not a trend.
Market Profile Analysis
Friday builds a P-shape on the 30-minute profile: a thin leg of A and B period prints from about 22,925 up through 23,057 (the flush and the reversal printing in the same price range, a V), then a tight developed body at the top with the value area at 23,057.7 to 23,148.3 and the POC at 23,110.5, almost exactly where the day closed. The top is tagged a Poor High at 23,154.6, taking out Thursday's.
The close at the POC with the value area stacked on top of yesterday's high is the profile saying the market accepted the higher prices. The thin leg underneath, from 22,925 to 23,057, is the area price moved through fast.
30-minute TPO. A thin leg from the flush and reversal, a developed body at 23,057.7 to 23,148.3 with the POC at 23,110.5, and a Poor High at 23,154.6.
Structural Levels
For Monday, from today's H/L/C (23,154.6 / 22,908.0 / 23,113.0 on the chart): a narrow, 54-point CPR (BC 23,031.3 / TC 23,085.8) with both ends higher than Friday's and the close above it. NSE is closed on Tuesday for Dussehra, so Monday opens a four-session week.
Resistance
- 23,155 — Friday's high, the new Poor High.
- 23,181 / 23,209 — Monday's Camarilla H3 and R1.
- 23,249 — Monday's Camarilla H4.
Support
- 23,086 / 23,059 / 23,045 / 23,031 — the CPR top, the pivot, Camarilla L3 and the CPR bottom, a four-level stack, with Thursday's 23,095 high just above it.
- 22,977 / 22,962 — Monday's Camarilla L4 and S1.
- 22,908 — Friday's low, the base of the flush.
For next week, the weekly CPR from this week's H/L/C (23,154.6 / 22,368.0 / 23,113.0) is 22,761 to 22,996, normal width and rising, with price trading above it.
Options and Futures OI
By the 3:15 pm check, PCR was 1.34 (from 1.42 at the open), max pain 23,050 (from 22,950) and futures OI was down just 0.1% on the day — positions steady, which fits an 80-point box. Inside the ±15 strike window puts added 549L and calls 499L, with the biggest writes at 23,100 PE (+119L) and 23,150 CE (+79L): the options market pricing the same range the footprint drew.
Heading into the day, FIIs held a net short of about 280K index futures contracts, down from 297K after covering roughly 17K contracts on Thursday's squeeze, and DIIs were net long near 56%, up from 44%. The short position is still large, but it is shrinking.
Trading Implications
The continuation case. An absorbed low, a reversal on +1.9K of delta in two bars, price accepted above Thursday's Poor High all day and a narrow CPR with both ends higher and the close above it all point up. A break of the box above 23,155 aims at H3 (23,181) and R1 (23,209).
The compression case. Five hours in an 80-point box on thin volume with cumulative delta only +1.6K is a market waiting for a catalyst, and a 54-point CPR says the wait ends with a directional day. The two sell bars (-220 and -619) are small, but they were the only ones, and a drop under the box would put the 23,031 to 23,086 CPR stack in play first.
The level that decides it. Holding 23,031 to 23,095 keeps the break to the upside the likelier resolution. A loss of 23,031 puts 22,977 and 22,962 next, and the 22,908 low underneath that.
For how these order-flow, OI and market-profile reads fit together with CPR and pivots, see Reading the Market. The month-in-review for every completed month is the Monthly Framework Ledger; every prior session is in the Daily Recap archive. The running, day-by-day record of these calls is the Framework Scorecard.
This recap is the derivatives side — intraday and short swings. For the investing companion, see The Relative Strength Line Nobody Taught You to Read and Catch Wealth Before It Runs.
Conclusion
Thursday's recap asked whether Friday would keep building on top of the squeeze or come back to test it. It did both in 30 minutes: it tested the support stack's doorstep, bounced, and then spent five hours building on top. The box is the market's answer for now. Monday's narrow CPR will decide which way it breaks.
Not investment advice. This is a study of order flow, market profile, and open interest for educational purposes. Trade your own plan.
— Shak